Mirage Poker R

2006-09-12T19:10:00.000-07:00

Bellagio and The Mirage An Unbeatable poker Pair!

Whether you're a tourist who has visited Las Vegas or a local who plays every day, chances are you've been to one or both of the two largest cardrooms in Nevada. Bellagio and The Mirage offer great live action, the highest limits found anywhere in the world, and with the addition of The Poker Zone, they now feature great tournaments, too. Regardless of your preference, Bellagio and The Mirage offer all that a poker player's heart may desire.

While each of these properties has its own identity, there are many things that they have in common. Starting with professionalism from the managers on down the line, each member of their caring staffs takes a serious approach to customer service and job performance. The atmosphere in each cardroom is elegant and welcoming, and provides the perfect environment for poker.

Cardroom veteran Doug Dalton, who began his career in the late '70s, manages the Bellagio poker room. He worked his way up from shift manager at the Golden Nugget in Downtown Las Vegas to the director of poker operations today. Along the way, he worked as assistant manager of the Dunes poker room, general manager of the Oceanside Card Casino, and manager of both the Treasure Island and The Mirage cardrooms.

Bellagio is an international resort destination that provides some of the best action you will ever find. The cardroom features 30 tables and spreads a variety of games from $1-$5 seven-card stud to the highest-limit poker played anywhere in the world (a $20,000-$40,000 game was spread recently). The primary games are seven-card stud, Texas hold'em, Omaha eight-or-better, and multiple or mixed games. It features a special platform that separates the high-limit games - which begin at $60-$120 - from the mid- to lower-limit games. The chairs in this cardroom are a delight; they were custom-designed and personally selected by Dalton, and are as comfortable as you will find in any cardroom. They feature swivel seats with hydraulic lifts, which enable players to adjust seats to their own height preferences. The poker room is adjacent to the casino's luxurious sportsbook, and has convenient access to valet and self-parking poker stars.net
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Bellagio also recently adopted a new policy of creating nonsmoking tables. Anytime there are multiple games of the same limit in progress, at least one of those games is nonsmoking. "We have received a positive response to this effort," said Dalton.

The Mirage, by contrast, has 24 tables and is managed by Donna Harris. She began her 21-year career as a shill dealer at the Golden Nugget, and worked as the swing shift manager of The Mirage when it opened in 1989. She became cardroom manager at The Mirage in 1998 when Bellagio opened. Since that time, she has worked hard to rebuild the business that went to Bellagio, and is now proudly hosting a room full of players who enjoy playing all limits and all games.

Attributing the cardroom's success to her wonderful staff, Harris says they worked nonstop in difficult times to bring The Mirage cardroom back to life. Part of this effort included her and host Ugur Marangoz's creation of "The Poker Zone," The Mirage's poker tournaments that are held Sunday through Thursday evenings. These events are the highest buy-in regularly scheduled tournaments in Las Vegas, and are run by Tournament Coordinator Richard White.

Harris believes that in order to provide the best customer service possible, she needs feedback directly from her customers. To accomplish this, a comprehensive survey form was created that enables her staff to make sure that most, if not all, of her patrons' needs are met. "The goal is to have my name, The Mirage, and the diligent efforts of my staff always remain synonymous with hard work, integrity, and professionalism," Harris said.

A major poker tournament at The Mirage is in the planning stages. Harris said, "It is still too early to make the details public, but we are working very hard to realize a big, different, and exciting poker tournament that will be unlike any other to date."

These two fine resorts also feature other highlights and attractions. At The Mirage, guests thrill to an erupting volcano or come face to face with some of the world's most awe-inspiring animals. At Bellagio, "dancing" fountains and romantic botanical gardens contribute to this property's beauty.

In addition, great entertainment is featured at The Mirage in performances by "The Man of Many Voices," Danny Gans, and the "Magicians of the Century," Siegfried Roy. Bellagio presents a show that is beyond circus, and beyond theater; Cirque du Soleil creates an entirely original form of live entertainment. The creative team has unveiled its most daring project to date with the premiere of "O."

Dining is an unforgettable experience at both properties. The Mirage features a selection of some of the finest cuisine from around the world, and Bellagio's 10 exceptional dining facilities offer a very different array of culinary delights. Both properties feature five-star restaurants - Picasso at Bellagio, and Renior at The Mirage. Sounds great, doesn't it? It is!

2006-09-12T18:47:00.000-07:00

Efficient Poker Market Hypothesis

"I'm never betting football again," my friend Jeremy said, not so much to me as to himself, after another zero for three day betting the NFL.

Whether he wanted to hear it or not, I started talking about the efficient market hypothesis. In the stock market, those who subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis believe that every bit of information is already priced into stocks and that there are no opportunities.

If the hypothesis is true, as many academics contend, how could Qualcomm, a company so well known that a sports stadium in San Diego is named after it, go from $7 to $176 in 1999?

I don't buy that markets of any kind are totally efficient, but what I have come to understand is that the more information that exists, the more efficient markets become. When I look for opportunities, I avoid things that get a lot of attention - blue-chip stocks and the NFL come to mind. In these two endeavors, with dozens of analysts and intense public interest, it's rare to find a situation in which information isn't already priced in.

When Jack Welch announced his retirement from General Electric, the news had already been priced into the stock, and even if it hadn't, it's unlikely that you would have been privy to this information before dozens of analysts were. It's also unlikely that you'll know about a player injury before it's already priced into an NFL line poker stars.com
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When it comes to stocks, you'll likely find inefficiencies when there isn't much information. Whether it's emerging markets or small-caps, the stocks that receive the least amount of attention have the greatest chance of being improperly valued.

For football, it's not enough to avoid the NFL and focus on college. Nationally televised games involving high-profile teams have all the appropriate information priced into the line. Your best opportunities may be in the smaller conferences, such as the MAC or the Ivy League, in which there is limited interest and scrutiny.

But it's not enough to bet on games with limited information; the key is to know something that the market doesn't already know. I know a professional gambler who subscribes to every periodical for the Central Michigan Chippewas. It's not enough for him to know statistics; he also wants to know if there was a pep rally on campus that fired up the players, if the students were in the middle of exams, or if the coach's job is in jeopardy.

When I worked as a housing coordinator in the Atlanta Olympic Village, a fire alarm went off in the dorm in which the Chinese team was staying the night before the swimming finals. Had there been a line on these events, that information would not have been priced into the line and you would have had an opportunity. Just as a horse bettor will wake up with the horses and see how they are acting that day, a sports bettor should go so far as to make sure the team flight went off without a hitch.

In poker, the best games are the ones that nobody knows about. The minute it becomes known that there is a live game, two things start to happen. The first is that good players flock to this game. The second is that the live players start to go broke and the game gets tougher. Great games rarely stay great for long, as the top players put in for table changes and the bad players go broke.

In business, the less information, the more opportunity. Sam Walton built Wal-Mart on the following premise: Go where they're not. Rather than compete against established retailers such as Sears and Woolworth, Wal-Mart built its stores in smaller towns, where the market seemed too insignificant for the bigger stores to pay attention.

Want to find the best opportunities in poker and business? Look where no else is looking.diamonds

2006-09-11T08:33:00.000-07:00

A Poker Star is Born

"Where legends are born and heroes are made" is the World Series of Poker's motto, and this year proved no exception as several new stars took center stage: Robert Varkonyi, an unknown who claimed the world championship, and Phil Ivey, a star who became a superstar by winning three bracelets in one year at the age of 25.

But this year a star was unexpectedly born not at the table but behind it - Matt Savage's direction of the tournament was so strong and his performance so universally praised that by tournament's end, he had placed himself squarely in the top tier of tournament directors working today, alongside the likes of Jack McClelland. Noted author Jesse May went so far as to call Savage "the best tournament director I have ever seen." In the course of running the tournament (with co-director Steve Morrow), he also made what is almost surely the first million-dollar table decision in poker history, a ruling that literally resulted in a difference of more than a million real dollars for a player.

I recently caught up with Matt at Lucky Chances Casino in Colma, California, where as tournament director he runs a half-dozen weekly tournaments (all with guaranteed prize pools), and where he is preparing for this fall's Gold Rush tournament, which will serve as a stop on the inaugural World Poker Tour and will be the largest tournament in the history of Northern California. The Gold Rush will take place Nov. 2-11 and will culminate in a $1,000 TOC-style mixed games tournament and a $3,000 no-limit hold'em championship event poker stars
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Diego Cordovez: What were the most satisfying aspects of the World Series of Poker for you?

Matt Savage: There were two things that people said couldn't be done - starting the tournaments on time and eliminating player abuse. Those turned out to be two areas of success that I felt I played a big part in. Every tournament started on time and I had to give out only two abuse penalties during the entire six weeks.

DC: How did those come about?

MS: One of them was requested by the player. Mike Laing asked for a penalty because he wanted the honor of getting the first one, and the other one happened away from the table.

DC: Would Mike have gotten the penalty if he hadn't asked for it?

MS: No, but I gave it to him so that he wouldn't escalate things further and earn a real penalty.

DC: Were you surprised by the lack of penalties?

MS: Somewhat, because I was told so many times by so many people that I was going to hate the job, that players would act up, and that players would try to take advantage of me (being a newcomer), but I didn't have any problems.

DC: To what do you attribute the good behavior?

MS: We got things off on a good note by starting the first tournament on time and announcing that absolutely no abuse would be allowed. We kept reminding people every day and I established a really good rapport with the players, especially the ones I had been warned about.

DC: You made a special effort to get to know potential troublemakers?

MS: Every one of them, and I gained their trust, their respect, and usually their friendship. Then during the tournaments when it looked like someone was starting to act up, I would walk over and give them a look, and they would stop. I focused on preventing the problem before it took place.

DC: You've been running the tournaments here at Lucky Chances since the club opened in 1998. Most of them are small buy-in, local-player tournaments, but how are they similar to the World Series and how did your experience here prepare you for the World Series?

MS: I tried to apply as much of what I learned here as I could. I tried to make the tournaments player-friendly by providing structures that ensured a lot of play; I tried to learn every player's name that I could; and I tried to get to know as many players as I could on a personal level, at the table and away from it, and that went a long way toward gaining people's trust. I had only one dispute about a ruling the whole time, which unfortunately led to the only real penalty I had to issue during the entire tournament.

DC (laughing): So, the lesson here is that if someone disputes a ruling with you, they will receive a penalty.

MS: Right! No, I have no problem with someone discussing a ruling, but don't make a big scene with foul language. It goes both ways; lots of times I see a floorman make a big ruling and then hang around the table, and that just causes friction. It's best to walk away and conduct any further discussion away from the table and away from the other players.

DC: Apart from your extensive knowledge of the rules (which comes in part from being a founder of the Tournament Directors Association, together with Linda Johnson, Jan Fisher, and Dave Lamb), your biggest strength seems to be the rapport you have with players, which leads to a comfortable atmosphere at your tournaments.

MS: I can imagine having a problem with a player only if I don't know him or her, so I make an effort to get to know as many players as I can, because if I know them, I will be better able to deal with them. Even just knowing someone's name goes a long way. If I see a problem developing at a table, I'll call out a player's name and get his attention, which usually leads to resolving the situation.

DC: How did you prepare for the World Series?

MS: We tried to anticipate all possible situations. Steve Morrow, Bryan Dziminski, George Fisher, and I had many, many meetings to prepare. We discussed how to handle different situations so that we would be prepared for anything.

DC: Let's talk about the million-dollar ruling you made on the penultimate day of the championship event in a hand between Julian Gardner and Russell Rosenbloom. Your decision resulted in Julian not being eliminated from the championship; he stayed alive and went on to cash $1.1 million for second place. When you made the ruling, did it cross your mind that it could have such huge financial consequences for Julian?

MS: No, I couldn't anticipate how it worked out for Julian, but I did think it might cost Russell a lot of money. I thought it had the potential of being huge, but in the sense of costing Russell a big payday, not expecting Julian to come back and make a lot of money as a result of not being eliminated.

DC: I have read about five different and contradictory accounts of the hand. My understanding is that Julian bet on the flop, Russell raised, and Julian moved in all of his chips. It would have cost Russell only about $30,000 more to call, which was not very much relative to the size of the pot, and as it turned out, he held the best hand and would have knocked Julian out, but when Julian moved in his chips, Russell jumped up from the table and made a big mistake. Tell us what happened as you arrived on the scene at this crucial juncture.

MS: I was walking by the table, announcing the hands, and saw Julian push all of his chips in after the flop. Russell jumped up in a panic and ran into the service bar area. I asked him what he was doing. He said, "I fold, I fold," and as I leaned over to see how many chips Julian had in the pot, Russell picked up on the fact that I was going to count down Julian, and realized that he may have Julian covered and that perhaps it wasn't that many more chips to call, so he raced back to the table and got to his cards right before I could grab them. He asked, "How much more is it to me?" but I immediately said, "Russell, your hand is dead." He said, "What do you mean? It's only 30 something thousand more to me," but I repeated, "Your hand is dead," and told him the specific rule, that verbal declarations in turn are binding.

DC: How did Russell react at this point?

MS: He looked at me to tell me that I was wrong and said, "Wait, wait," but about 10 minutes later he came over to me and told me he realized that he had made a mistake, and that I had made the right ruling, which was very cool of him and I really appreciated it. The next day, he came over and repeated the same thing. He was a complete gentleman.

DC: Besides this hand, what were the most memorable moments of the Series for you?

MS: Watching and announcing the final five tables; seeing the pressure rising; seeing some very surprising hands being played, some very weak plays and some very strong plays, too; literally seeing the sweat on people's foreheads, seeing how the pressure affected people as they got close to the final table - it was fascinating. It was awesome watching Harley Hall at the final table; he came in with the fewest chips and moved up spot by spot to fifth by playing very few hands and sticking to his strategy.

DC: Was it always your dream to run the World Series of Poker?

MS: Once I started running tournaments, I always knew I could direct the World Series someday. I just thought that it would be further down the road. I think that whatever profession you pursue, you should shoot for the top spot. If you do that, you will reach your potential, so I always dreamed of directing the World Series of Poker. I always thought I could do it and people like you told me I could do it, and I got tremendous support from the people here at Lucky Chances, both customers and management.

But how it all came about is still surprising. I was a dealer. I was always working, never less than the full shift, never taking an early out, until my hands started to give out and I couldn't deal anymore. I didn't know what to do, and thought I would have to get out of the business. I wasn't thinking about tournaments at all and didn't know anything about tournaments, but I started to help with some tournaments at Bay 101. When Lucky Chances opened, they gave me the chance to run their tournaments and supported my traveling and attending conferences, and ultimately that led to the World Series of Poker. If people like Mr. Rene Medina (owner) and Scott Fiedler (casino manager) hadn't supported me and let me do those things, I never would have had the opportunity to do the World Series.

DC: Well, they obviously saw your talent and wanted to help you get to the top. Thanks for your time. I know we'll see you at the World Series and other major tournaments down the road.diamonds

2006-09-11T08:04:00.000-07:00

Mississippi Seven-Card Stud Poker

During last year's BARGE event at Binion's Horseshoe, when it was late at night and everyone was more than a little bit tired, Patri Friedman suggested playing a game many of us had never heard of before. That game was Mississippi seven-card stud, and we played it pot limit. I liked the game; in fact, I liked it a lot, but I didn't think too much about it at the time. To me it was just another new card game to try out, and while it was enjoyable, the rest of BARGE was too. The game remained a pleasant memory until a few months ago, when I began corresponding via E-mail with a fellow named David Zanetti, who lives in Perth, Western Australia, and claims to have invented the game, or at least discovered it. Zanetti conceived the game in 1998, and he's been trying to promote it ever since then.

Mississippi seven-card stud is just like traditional stud poker, with two small but significant differences. Two cards, rather than just one, are dealt before the second betting round, and the last card is dealt faceup rather than facedown. Because the fourth and fifth cards are dealt together, rather than separately, Mississippi seven-card stud has only four betting rounds instead of the five rounds that are a feature of traditional seven-card stud poker.

According to Zanetti, who has much more experience with this game than I do, Mississippi seven-card stud is faster and more players call the third-street bet, because they will be receiving two more cards prior to the second betting round. As a result of receiving what amounts to be two cards for the price of one, this feature provides a better value for draws.

Dealing the last card faceup is crucial for big-bet poker, according to Zanetti, although it matters less in the limit version of the game. Zanetti said, "The third holecard has basically the same effect as a paired board does in hold'em or Omaha - since a flush, straight, or trips can never (normally) be the absolute nuts - and this has a significant impact on the betting and hand valuations with half-pot, pot-limit, or no-limit betting." In Zanetti's opinion, traditional seven-card stud has one betting round too many and one too many hidden cards to make it viable as a big-bet game poker stars.com
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But before we go any further, let's see how the game is played. Just as in traditional stud poker, players ante and receive two cards facedown and one card faceup. In the limit version of Mississippi seven-card stud, the low card "brings it in" for a token bet. In big-bet games - half-pot, pot-limit, or no-limit - the high card must either bet or fold.

Once all bets and raises on third street have been equalized and the betting round is complete, each active player receives two additional cards. Those cards - fourth and fifth street together, as it were - are dealt faceup. The highest hand starts the action, and may check or bet. Once the betting is concluded, a fourth upcard (sixth street) is dealt and another round of betting ensues. The river card is then dealt faceup and the final betting round begins.

Zanetti believes that starting-hand and playing requirements for Mississippi seven-card stud are about the same as they are for traditional stud poker, with some marginal hands becoming more playable because fourth and fifth street are dealt simultaneously. "High pairs," stated Zanetti, "decrease in profitability, while straights and flushes improve. Small pairs with big kickers do better against naked high pairs, but lose more often to straights and flushes, so they remain about the same."

Zanetti has a lot of hope for this game's future, particularly as a big-bet version of stud poker. He believes that seven-card stud met its Waterloo in 1971, when it was overlooked - although it was probably the most popular form of poker at the time - for selection as the deciding game for the World Series of Poker. While Texas hold'em was not nearly as popular as seven-card stud 30 years ago, stud poker simply did not lend itself to big-bet play. And when Benny and the boys got together back then, limit poker was not on their minds.

Mississippi seven-card stud affords stud players a chance to compete at big-bet poker without having to slide over to the hold'em table. Moreover, with tournaments looking for variety in their menu offerings, this is a game that any stud poker aficionado can play without having to make too many adjustments.

But there's no reason to wait for a tournament director to glom onto Mississippi seven-card stud. Play a few rounds during your next home game, or better yet, see if you can gin up enough interest at your local cardroom to warrant spreading it - if only on a trial basis.

If you'd like a bit more information on the game, you can visit the Mississippi seven-card stud home page online at www.geocities.com/mississippi_seven/index.html and pick up some additional tips on the game and a variety of other offerings - including what must be a few Aussie-only games: crocodile seven-card stud, billabong hold'em, and Australian stud.

Although I've played this game only once, I believe it has sufficient promise and would like to see it spread on a trial basis either as a cash game or as a tournament event in casinos. Maybe it will develop a following. Who knows? And maybe we'll spread this game once again at BARGE 2001. If you plan on being there, give it a try. diamonds

2006-09-09T14:52:00.000-07:00

Calling Poker on the End

A prominent Internet poster has often stated that making tough folds on the river is not the way to make money in limit hold'em. Indeed, it is amusing to watch a player rapidly dump money into a pot on every round and then, with the pot being huge, suddenly go into deep thought when the final river bet is made. The pot odds will normally mandate a call with any decent chance of winning or catching a bluff. However, automatically calling on the end while hoping that your opponent is bluffing can prove to be expensive over the course of a year. Your read on your opponent, the betting action, and the texture of the board play a critical role in deciding what you should do. The following six hands, taken from live-action middle-limit games, illustrate some of the key considerations that come into play.

Hand No. 1 ($10-$20 game): An early-position player opens with a raise. Four players fold to you. You reraise with the Aspades Ahearts. Everyone folds to the early-position player, who makes it four bets. Rather than give away the strength of your hand, you decide to just smooth-call, since you have position over your lone opponent. There is $95 in the pot and two players.

The flop is Q diamonds 6hearts 2spades. Your opponent checks. You bet and he calls. There is $115 in the pot.

The turn is the Jclubs. Your opponent checks. You bet and he calls. There is $155 in the pot.

The river is the 7 diamonds. Your opponent checks. You bet and get raised. What should you do?

Answer: With $215 in the pot, you must call the $20 raise with your big overpair. Your opponent probably has pocket queens or pocket jacks, and has you beat with a set. But for a fold to be correct, you would have to be right more than 90 percent of the time. Your opponent might have pocket kings, which you can beat. He might be fooling around and putting in a last-minute raise in a desperate attempt to win the pot. Regardless, there is too much money in the pot for you to fold on the end.

If you ever decide to start folding hands like this on the end against one opponent, do not ever show anyone your hand. If you do, your more observant opponents will start taking pots away from you.

Hand No. 2 ($30-$60 game): You open with a raise under the gun with the A diamonds K diamonds. Only the small blind calls. The small blind is an eccentric lady who plays very loose preflop, but quite well once the flop comes. She is stuck about $3,000 in this game. There is $150 in the pot and two players.

The flop is the Jhearts 10 diamonds 5clubs. She bets and you call with your two big overcards, gutshot-straight draw, and backdoor nut-flush draw. There is $210 in the pot.

The turn is the 9 diamonds. She bets. You just call with your nut-flush draw, because she is not the type to fold on the turn when raised in a heads-up situation. There is $330 in the pot.

The river is the 2spades. She bets. What should you do?

Answer: You must fold here. Calling is bad because the 9 on the turn helped many nonpair-type hands she might have, such as K-Q, 8-7, or 9-8. The only hand you can beat is specifically A-Q.

Hand No. 3 ($20-$40 game): You are on the button with the 9 diamonds 8 diamonds and limp in behind an early-position player, a middle-position player, and the cutoff. The small blind limps, the big blind raises, and everyone calls. There is $240 in the pot and six players pokerstars
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The flop is the Adiamonds 10hearts 7spades. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, the early-position player folds, the middle-position player raises, the cutoff folds, you call, and the small blind folds. The big blind then reraises and the middle-position player makes it four bets. You call, and the big blind caps the betting. Both the middle-position player and you call. There is $540 in the pot and three players.

The turn is the Jclubs. The big blind bets, the middle-position player calls, and you raise. Both opponents call. There is $780 in the pot.

The river is the Qspades. The big blind bets and the middle-position player calls. What should you do?

Answer: For sure, no one has K-Q, since your raise on the turn was not reraised. Of course, anyone with a king now has you beat with a bigger straight. The big blind raised after several players limped in preflop. This could mean A-K. But would he have three-bet and capped the betting on the flop with just top pair, top kicker, or would he be more likely to have done this with two pair or a set? What about the middle-position player? He cannot have A-K, since he did not raise preflop. We have already ruled out K-Q. There is no other hand containing a king that would have caused the middle-position player to raise and then four-bet on the flop. Since there is a chance that the big blind may not have A-K and was playing two pair or a set, I think you have to call for another $40 with $860 in the pot. The big blind had Aspades 10spades. The middle-position player had Ahearts Jspades. You win.

Hand No. 4 ($10-$20 game): An early-position player limps in and a middle-position player raises. You call with the Ahearts Qhearts. Both blinds and the limper call. There is $100 in the pot and five players.

The flop is the Aspades 8spades 7hearts. It's checked to the raiser, who bets. You raise and only the bettor calls.

The turn is the 8hearts. Your opponent checks and you bet. He raises and you call.

The river is the Kspades. Your opponent bets. What should you do?

Answer: Although there is $240 in the pot and it costs you $20 to call, I believe you should fold. Your queen kicker is useless, so any ace ties you. There is now a spade flush possibility out there. Your opponent's check-raise on the turn means that he most likely has big slick or trip eights.

Hand No. 5 ($30-$60 game): You are in the small blind with the Kspades Qspades. The under-the-gun player opens with a raise and you are the only caller. There is $150 in the pot and two players.

The flop is the Khearts Jhearts J diamonds. You bet and he calls. There is $210 in the pot.

The turn is the 10hearts. You bet and your opponent calls. There is $330 in the pot.

The river is the 3 diamonds. You check, and your opponent bets. What should you do?

Answer: With an open pair, three hearts, three parts to a straight on the table, and an under-the-gun preflop raiser, it doesn't seem possible that you have the best hand. Nevertheless, with almost $400 in the pot, I think you have to pay off for another $60 and take your medicine. He might have raised with a medium pocket pair like nines that included a heart. He might have pocket queens, including the Qhearts. He might have raised with A-10 suited and hung around. While holdings you can beat are very unlikely, the pot is big enough that you need to call. However, folding may not be too far wrong because of all of the stuff out there.

Hand No. 6 ($10-$20 game): You are in the small blind with the Aclubs A diamonds. Everyone limps in except for two early-position players, the cutoff, and the button, who fold. You raise, and everyone calls. There is $120 in the pot and six players.

The flop is the Khearts 9 diamonds 8 diamonds. You bet and two middle-position players call. There is $150 in the pot and three players.

The turn is the 7clubs. You bet. The first middle-position player raises, the second player folds, and you call. There is $230 in the pot and two players.

The river is the 6diamonds. You check, and your opponent bets. What should you do?

Answer: Fold. Since you correctly bet fourth street with your big overpair, it is unlikely that your opponent is trying to take the pot away from you. Even if he was semibluffing on the turn, the 6u should have given him whatever he was seeking, since there are now four parts to an open-end straight on the table as well as three diamonds. diamonds

2006-09-09T13:41:00.000-07:00

When evaluating the playability of a Poker hand

, the entire context of the situation must be considered

My wife and I like our house. It's a little small for our needs, but not so small that we're ready to move. Still, when we're out driving, we can't help eyeing what's for sale, and occasionally we make a mental note and check the asking prices later. Driving patterns being what they are, a lot of our driving tends to be on heavily trafficked arteries. So, when a "For Sale" sign catches our eye, it tends to be for a very nice house that happens to be alongside a major artery. Do we like the house? Sure, sometimes. Do we like the location? Rarely. And when it comes to real estate, location is paramount. While it's fun to look at these houses in isolation, we don't make offers on any of them, and not just because they're out of our price range. As much as we'd like to live in a majestic mansion, we'd also like to be able to walk our dog and occasionally hear a movie over the traffic noise.

When making a decision, whether it's in real estate or in poker, you can't just pick out one factor and examine it in isolation. You need the entire context. It's easiest to make a mistake when the one factor is especially salient. If a house is especially attractive, you may momentarily forget where it's situated. Or (getting to poker), if a starting hand in hold'em has some unusually positive attributes, like Q-J (which, after all, is very colorful), you might momentarily forget that it's not really worth playing for a big raise pokerstars
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Context is a little tricky; it's not always obvious what's important and what isn't. You might have negative feelings about a house because you don't like the realtor who's showing it, or because the interior is decorated in flamingo pink, or because it was raining the day you saw it. Those may or may not be good reasons to avoid a house. Similarly, you may like your Q-J because you've been looking for a good time to take on that bully who's been terrorizing the table, or because you haven't had anything remotely playable for a long time, so, relatively speaking, it seems pretty strong. Do these factors make your Q-J more playable? Perhaps indirectly they do; if that bully raises with anything, your Q-J is about a 58-42 favorite (if you can get him heads up). If you haven't had a hand for a long time, it might be worth playing a marginal hand, even if your expected value is slightly negative, just to avoid developing a ridiculously tight table image. But you usually need a reason that's at least slightly better than boredom.

We all know the kind of momentary joy that comes with a hold'em starting hand like Q-J after hours of folding hands more like 9-2. The joy comes from seeing a hand that's at least potentially playable, which on a bad day feels like a rarity. But the complete context for your preflop action includes more than your cards. Q-J is a decent hand after five flat-callers. It's a pretty poor hand after two informative raises. While Q-J makes for an easy example, few hold'em hands are universally playable. If you got the same 100 starting hands every time you played poker, you might average playing 20 of them, but due to other factors, end up actually playing anywhere from two to 40.

It's easy to get frustrated about the need to have conspiring factors come together to make a hand playable. Potentially playable hands come along rarely enough that it's frustrating to have to fold them. But there's a nice flip side to this. If you fold some otherwise playable hands when the situation is unfavorable, you can play some otherwise foldable hands when the situation is favorable. For every time you remember that Q-J is junk after a raise, you can consider playing 10-8 suited from late position with lots of company and no raise.

But what if (I can hear you objecting) the other players at your table make sure that just about every situation is unfavorable? Well, there are a few things to consider. First, there are tables that are tight and aggressive and skilled enough that you really will find it hard to find a good spot for your chips. These tables are few and far between, at least in small and medium-sized games, and perhaps are not the best investment of your time. On the other hand, if your opponents are showering the pot with chips indiscriminately, you may need to rethink what kinds of situations you consider favorable. Q-J is a big underdog against most informative raisers, but against a completely indiscriminate raiser, it's a 58-42 favorite.

Thinking about the big picture also helps when mildly aversive things happen, like having the table fold around to your big blind when you hold A-A, or not getting any action on your nut flush. You'd like to make more with your best hand of the session - and in fact you will. Your best hand isn't just the hand with which you have the best cards, it's the hand with which you find yourself in the best position to make money. It might be A-A, it might be a nut flush, or it could be an 8-4 in your big blind that ends up making an improbable winner in a big family pot.

Giving context its proper weight is one of the cognitive functions that depends on an intact prefrontal cortex (aka the PFC, basically the front-most quarter of the brain). It's the area of the brain that's slowest to develop (it could be argued that it's not working fully at least until your late teens) and most sensitive to aging. Luckily, it's not all that important for routine tasks, so if you've played a lot of poker before your PFC starts to go south, and the games don't change dramatically, you still should be competitive without it. People who don't have full use of their PFCs tend to be stimulus-bound; they see something and react to it, regardless of whether or not it's a good idea in context. They probably don't make great poker players. It's OK to have impulses when you play poker, but making the best decisions requires a slightly broader view. spade

2006-08-12T16:33:00.000-07:00

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